I was just reading the latest housing market commentary on the National Association of Realtors website. I had to chuckle a bit as the NAR commentary tries to paint the best picture of the housing market possible. I guess my perspective, knowing the financing/debt markets better than most average people, allows me to see through much of the rhetoric that economists, REALTORS and other “experts” spew on a daily basis.  I think it is pretty easy to understand that a four-one-hundreths of a percent increase in home sales month over month is marginal at best…and that surely one cannot deduce anything about the housing market using only this one statistic.

Of course, as I drove to the office this morning, the news on the radio was all roses with regards to the housing market. “We have turned the corner” one expert said. I think I laughed out loud and I hope others listening did as well. What scares me most is that the overwhelming majority of people in this country have no clue what is going on in the debt markets. They have no idea how fragile some of the largest financial institutional players are right now. Leveraged to the hilt, it is not going to take much of a hiccup for more of the big boys to take the same path as Bear Stearns. Of course, you will hear shock and awe from the interviews of everyday employees and passers by when listening to the radio and reading the paper.  I was never one to be a media basher in the past, but the more I learn and the less I watch the nightly and local news, the more I realize that the media is making a mountain out of a mole hill 99% of the time.

I guess that is enough ranting for one morning. Have a good one.

tags: media, nar, national association of realtors, housing market, real estate

What is seldom reported by our amazingly accurate media is that the NEW home sales figures do not include cancellations…which is what has been hurting big home developers recently.  The new home sales figures are bloated simply because they decide not to include deals that are no longer in contract…that makes sense.

Today, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell 0.2% in July, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. On a year over year basis, sales dropped 9.0%, while the median price of an existing home dropped 0.6% to $228,900, and the supply of homes for sale at the end of the month climbed 5.1%. At the current sales pace, that represented 9.6 months’ of inventory, the most since October 1991. I like their title for the article though.  It is all about perception in the marketplace my friends.

tags: existing home sales, home sales, nar, national association of realtors, real estate

The National Association of Realtors reported sales of previously owned homes fell 0.3% in May to the lowest in almost four years. In addition to slowing sales the supply of unsold homes jumped 5%, representing supply that will last 8.9 months at the current sales rate, the highest in almost 15 years. If you are not yet depressed, the report also told us the median price of an existing home fell 2.1% last to $223,700, the 10th consecutive month of year over year declines. Apparently the slowing housing and mortgage markets are taking their toll in California, as increased job losses have pushed the unemployment rate to 5.2%. This negative economic news has had a positive effect on the bond market, with the yield on the 10 year note dropping to 5.10%. Interestingly, the equity markets are also rallying after their steep decline on Friday.

tags: economics, economy, housing, real estate